Track record · year to date
How our signal has actually performed
Every figure counts all predictions and shows its denominator — so the numbers can’t flatter us.
How to read this
Hit rate: of the deals we tracked that actually completed, how often our signal pointed the right way. n= shows how many cases each number is based on - a rate built on 12 cases is a hint, not a fact. Calibration: when our internal rating was higher, did deals actually complete more often? Timing edge: how many days before the official announcement we first flagged a deal. Everything counts every prediction - no cherry-picking.
Source reliability
What a RITHM band has meant
Tracked predictions
Timing edge · early and growing